Uk Neighbourhood Retailing 2008-Aarkstore Enterprise
Neighbourhood retailing is outperforming all other locations. The location offers substantial opportunities, but the dynamics of the market are changing. As the market consolidates, growth is becoming more elusive and while substantial opportunities remain, trading conditions are more challenging and the strategies for success very different.
Scope
*Key metrics of neighbourhood retail: sales growth, space, store numbers, store sizes and sales densities.
*Detailed market analysis (convenience, off-licences, CTNs, food specialists, pharmacies) and profiles of all the leading neighbourhood retailers
*Focus on composition of convenience market (The Co-operatives, Multiples, Symbol Groups, Independents, forecourt retailing)
*Market shares for leading players 2003-2008
Highlights
Neighbourhood retailing is benefitting from a shift in shopping habits, an increased demand for convenience, improved standards and the arrival of the grocers. The expansion of the grocers has enticed people to shop locally and the symbol groups to enhance their propositions, encouraging independents to join and consumers to shop with them.
Competition is intensifying and pressures on food specialists, independents, off-licences and CTNs mounting. With the market consolidating, the easy wins of the past are harder to come by, while the boost received from the arrival of the grocers can not be repeated. Growth is set to become more elusive and the strategies for success different.
With propositions becoming more comprehensive, the need for CTNs, off-licenses and undifferentiated specialists is diminishing. As the market consolidates, store environments, fresh food and food-to-go will be key battlegrounds and the multiples, with the expertise and investment available to them, are well placed be the big winners.
Reasons to Purchase
*Benchmark retailer performance against the market. Understand the dynamics of the location, its composition and prospects for each channel
*Identify the growth prospects of key players in neighbourhood retailing
*Analyse the key issues impacting the location and identify thestrategies for success
Table of Contents :
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 24
Food-led neighbourhood to outperform total retail 25
Neighbourhood retailing creating a virtuous circle 25
Tesco and Sainsbury feeding virtuos circle and exerting competitive pressure 25
Takeover of Somerfield cements top place for The Co-operative 25
Symbol groups recruitment blitz will consolidate market further 26
CTNs and Off-licences a dwindling format 26
Grocers look at alternative sites for expansion as market saturates 26
Symbol groups improve offer, but risk falling behind 27
Convenience stores benefit from demand for top-up shopping 27
Diversifying offer to exploit high footfall and desire for convenience 28
Neighbourhood sales growth becoming more elusive 28
Power to shift further to grocers and large symbol groups 28
CHAPTER 2 KEY ISSUES 30
Exploiting opportunities in outperforming location 31
Changing shopper demographic 31
Demand for top-up shopping 32
Desire for convenience 33
Adapting to changing dynamics of location 34
Market consolidating 34
Competition intensifying 35
Consolidation to impact future growth opportunities 36
Flexible formats 38
Flexible propositions 38
Symbol groups boost loyalty 38
Diversify & Differentiate 39
Threats Remain 40
CTNs and off-licences lose out to bigger players 41
Onerous legislation will hit sales and profits 41
Dwindling need for CTNs & Off-licences 42
Only highly differentiated food specialists will survive 42
CHAPTER 3 NEIGHBOURHOOD MARKET 44
Summary 44
Supermarkets and symbol groups pressurise unaffiliated independents 44
Components of neighbourhood retailing 46
Neighbourhood sales channels 47
Majority of neighbourhood sales through convenience stores 48
Space 50
Multiples and symbol groups slow decline in space 50
Neighbourhood SWOT analysis 52
CHAPTER 4 NEIGHBOURHOOD V OTHER LOCATIONS 53
Sales 55
Sales growth driven by multiples and symbol groups 55
Space 58
Opportunistic retailers help slow declines in neighbourhood space 58
Sales densities 60
Boosted by product mix and expansion of multiples 60
Stores 62
Vacant stores are snapped up quickly 62
CHAPTER 5 C-STORES AND SMALL GROCERS 65
Summary 65
Despite continued consolidation, market remains fragmented 65
SWOT analysis 67
Key messages 68
Unafilliated independents continue to be recruited by symbol groups 68
Smaller Grocers – The Co-operative stamps authority and supermarkets exert pressure 68
Convenience retailing will benefit from changing shopping habits 69
Constrained household budgets make value key 69
Growing importance of fresh food and food-to-go 70
C-stores expand on to forecourts 70
Waitrose sensibly commits to convenince store expansion 71
CHAPTER 6 C-STORES: OTHER SYMBOL GROUPS 73
Introduction 73
Summary 73
How Costcutter / Nisa-Today’s relationship evolves will significantly impact on Nisa 73
Prevalence of wholesalers with a symbol group offer could decline sharply 74
Fresh produce and own brands become vital aspects of propositions 74
Key players 75
Best-one (Bestway) 75
Key Store (JW Filshill) 76
Lifestyle (Landmark Group) 76
Mace (Palmer & Harvey McLane) 77
Nisa-Today’s 77
CHAPTER 7 C-STORES ON FORECOURTS 80
Summary 80
Still hold opportunities for convenience and food service brands 80
Key messages 80
After decline petrol station numbers stabilise 80
Modern forecourt convenience stores continue to break old stereotypes 81
Motorists shop spend was resilient despite high fuel prices in 2008 81
Convenience store and oil company partnerships still being pursued 82
Service station food-to-go remains a growth area 83
Franchise arrangements increasingly prevalent 83
BP, Shell and Total continue to prospect for new dealers 83
BP franchise model successful template for others 83
SWOT analysis 85
Store numbers 86
Key players 87
BP has strongest shop brand on UK forecourts 87
Shell develops private label food-to-go range 88
Esso partnership with Tesco leaves it well placed 88
Total trio of formats 89
Almost all Texaco sites are dealer-owned 89
Smaller fuel retailers partner with branded stores 89
CHAPTER 8 TRADITIONAL FOOD SPECIALISTS 91
Summary 91
Niche players set to capitalise in struggling market 91
SWOT analysis 92
Key messages 92
Food specialists continue to struggle 92
Niche operators that diversify will prosper 93
Future for the sector looks challenging 94
Neighbourhood food specialists in wider context 95
Multiples and symbol groups encroach on specialists territory 95
Background of total sales, space and stores 97
Food specialists sales continue to be pressurised by multiples 97
Space and stores continue to contract as competition intensifies 100
CHAPTER 9 TRADITIONAL OFF-LICENCES 102
Summary 102
Off-licences face uncertain future 102
SWOT analysis 103
Key messages 104
Specialist off-licences under pressure from all sides 104
Proposed minimum unit pricing will be of no benefit to off-licences 104
Specialists need to utilise their strengths to advantage 105
Problem areas: shallow range, lack of knowledge and prices not low enough 105
First Quench (Threshers, Wine Rack, Haddows and The Local) 106
Struggles for survival 106
Other key players 107
Bargain Booze 107
Laithwaites 108
Majestic Wine 108
Oddbins 109
Wine Cellar 109
CHAPTER 10 NEIGHBOURHOOD PHARMACIES 110
Summary 110
Pharmaceutical market defies downturn 110
SWOT analysis 111
Key Messages 112
Local chemists seek to capitalise 112
Deregulation allows growth for supermarkets and independents alike 112
Smaller independents struggle against supermarkets and abolishment of PPA 112
Swine Flu injects boost 113
Pharmacies compete with GPs 113
Alliance Boots 114
Key Messages 117
Lloydspharmacy 118
Key Messages 120
CHAPTER 11 TRADITIONAL CTN OPERATORS 123
Summary 123
CTNs face increasingly uncertain future 123
SWOT analysis 124
Key messages 125
Increasingly competitive marketplace 125
Diversifying offer essential for survival 125
Provide service to encourage loyalty and spend 126
CTNs need to adapt store environments following tobacco legislation 126
Consolidation in newspaper distribution will see more CTNs close 127
Martin McColl 128
CHAPTER 12 FORECAST 130
Retail spending by location in 2008 and 2013 130
Multichannel retailers will prosper as online spending grows 130
Neighbourhood retailing to 2013 131
Sales growth to rise as multiples and symbol groups take over 131
Convenience stores will prosper in increasingly competitive market 133
Declines in space and stores will slow as market consolidates 134
CHAPTER 13 COMPANY DATA ANALYSIS 136
Summary 136
Winners & losers 136
Expansion of The Co-op and Tesco makes them big winners 136
Neighbourhood retailers sales 138
Growth driven by expansion of The Co-op and multiples 138
Market shares 139
The Co-operative maintains dominance through acquisition 139
C-store market shares 142
The Co-operative overtakes Tesco at top of convenience market 142
Key operating statistics 144
The Co-operative continues to lead the way 144
CHAPTER 14 THE CO-OPERATIVE GROUP 145
Asserts its dominance 145
Recent key events 146
Acquisition of Somerfield 146
The Co-op now has most stores in UK 147
The Acquisition of Somerfield – what it means for The Co-operative 147
Financials 149
Trading performance boosted by Somerfield acquistion 149
Space 153
Expansion set to slow after acquisition provides a boost 153
Market shares 155
The Co-operative experiences big gains in share 155
Outlook – Bright 157
Record refurbishment 157
Price harmonisation essential 157
Competition intensifies 157
Ethical reputation is valued by customers 158
Common branding 158
CHAPTER 15 COSTCUTTER 159
Continues to improve proposition 159
Recent key events 160
Reduces joining costs for retailers 160
Launches consumer loyalty scheme 160
Biggest TV campaign 160
Nisa-Today’s rejects Bibby Line bid 160
Financials 161
Stores 164
Market shares 166
CHAPTER 16 MUSGRAVE 170
Positions itself for future growth 170
Recent key events 171
Financials 173
Investment depresses operating profits 173
Space 178
Musgrave changes format mix 178
Market shares 179
Strong sales growth leads to share uplift 179
Outlook – Musgrave should reap rewards of investment 182
Resilient performance 182
Investing in itself is a sensible strategy 182
The group is also right to sacrifice profits 182
Improvements to the supply chain are very important 182
Fresh food will drive growth 183
Single entity synergies 183
Challenge to keep Budgens strong performance going 183
Consistent store standards imperative 183
CHAPTER 17 PREMIER (BOOKER) 185
Continues to grow but challenges remain 185
Recent key events 186
Management upholds solid trading performance 186
Launches new formats and broadens business 186
Strategy for growth 186
Three phases for completion by 2010 186
Financials 187
Strategies for growth boost trading performance 187
Premier in the neighbourhood 188
Space 190
Continues upwards trend as more stores join symbol 190
Market shares 191
Outlook – to grow market share further 193
Fresh products key 193
Staples like bread and milk will draw footfall 193
Standards must be kept high 193
Booker shoppers could become Premier members 193
More marketing wouldn’t go amiss 194
CHAPTER 18 SAINSBURY 195
To expand convenience offer aggressively 195
Recent key events 196
Restructures c-store estateProduct development 196
Then expands once more 196
Experiments with five formats 196
Financials 197
Neighbourhood 198
Space 199
Expansion to slow after acquisitions boost 199
Market shares 201
Sainsbury enjoys consistent growth over the last five years 201
Outlook – significant gains 203
Making Sainsbury’s Great Again achieves aim 203
Focus on convenience 203
Realigns prices 203
Market conditions help expansion 203
Behind The Co-operative and Tesco 204
CHAPTER 19 SPAR 205
Performs strongly in increasinlgy competitive market 205
Recent key events 206
Works hard to improve offer 206
Financials 208
Currency fluctuations affect performance heavily 208
Space 211
Greater competition reduces retailer membership 211
Market shares 213
Negatively affected by exchange rate 213
Outlook – aims to build on advantages 215
Currency fluctuations hide a strong performance 215
Store of the Future 215
Marketing improves brand awareness 215
Loyalty generation sensible 216
Needs aggressive recruitment 216
SPAR to thrive 216
CHAPTER 20 TESCO 217
Strong growth in neighbourhood yet challenges remain 217
Recent key events 218
Continued expansion increasingly meets resistance 218
Financials 219
Tesco continues to dominate 219
Space 221
Pace of expansion remains high 221
Market shares 223
Growth accelerates as space grows and offer evolves 223
Outlook – opportunities remain challenging 225
Tesco continues to lead in UK retail 225
Convenience best option if Competition Commission findings become law 225
Former pubs could be snapped up 225
Heightened resistance in rural areas 225
Symbol groups key advantage over the supermarket 226
CHAPTER 21 GLOSSARY 227
Terminology 227
Abbreviations 228
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Neighbourhood sales breakdown 2007-2009e 48
Table 2: Neighbourhood sales breakdown and its share of sectors 2009e 49
Table 3: Neighbourhood sales, space, density & store nos 1998-2009e 50
Table 4: Neighbourhood retailing SWOT analysis 2009 52
Table 5: Retail location definitions 2009 53
Table 6: Retail sales by location at current prices 1998-2009e 57
Table 7: Retail selling space by location 1998-2009e 59
Table 8: Sales densities by location at current prices 1998-2009e 60
Table 9: Store numbers by location 1998-2009e 63
Table 10: C-stores and small grocers SWOT analysis 2009 67
Table 11: Petrol forecourts SWOT analysis 2009 85
Table 12: Neighbourhood food specialists SWOT analysis 2009 92
Table 13: Neighbourhood and total food specialists sales 2009e 95
Table 14: Total food specialists sales 1998-2009e 98
Table 15: Total food specialists sales value by activity 2004-2009e 99
Table 16: Total food specialists store numbers and space 1998-2009e 100
Table 17: Off-licences SWOT analysis 2009 103
Table 18: First Quench key operating statistics 2004-2009e 106
Table 19: Pharmacy operators SWOT analysis 2009 111
Table 20: Alliance Pharmacy key operating statistics 2002-2008e 114
Table 21: Alliance Boots UK key operating statistics 2005-2010e 114
Table 22: Lloydspharmacy key operating statistics 2004-2009e 118
Table 23: Lloydspharmacy – pharmacy profile 1999-2009e 120
Table 24: CTN operators SWOT analysis 2009 124
Table 25: Martin McColl key operating statistics 2004-2009e 128
Table 26: Key neighbourhood retailers UK turnover record 2004-2009e 138
Table 27: Share of neighbourhood market – leading players 2004-2009e 139
Table 28: Leading n’hood retailers key operating statistics 2008/09e 144
Table 29: The Co-operative Group company overview 2009 145
Table 30: The Co-operative food retail key operating statistics 2004-2009 149
Table 31: The Co-operative Group trading record 2000-2009 150
Table 32: The Co-operative Group food retail trading record 2002-2009 150
Table 33: The Co-operative Group store profile 1998-2009 153
Table 34: Co-op Group store analysis (incl former Utd Co-op) January 09 153
Table 35: Co-op Group store numbers incl Somerfield at March 2009 154
Table 36: Costcutter company overview 2009 159
Table 37: Costcutter key operating statistics 2004-2009 161
Table 38: Costcutter estimated UK store profile 2003-2009 164
Table 39: Musgrave company overview 2009 170
Table 40: Musgrave retail key operating statistics 2004-2008 173
Table 41: Musgrave store profile 2002-2008 178
Table 42: Premier (Booker) company overview 2009 185
Table 43: Booker Group key operating statistics 2004-2009 187
Table 44: Booker Group trading record 2002-2009 187
Table 45: Premier store profile 1998-2009e 190
Table 46: Sainsbury company overview 2009 195
Table 47: Sainsbury UK supermarkets key operating statistics 2003-2008e 197
Table 48: Sainsbury group trading record 1998-2009 197
Table 49: Sainsbury neighbourhood retail trading record 2003-2009e 198
Table 50: Sainsbury store profile 1998-2009 199
Table 51: Sainsbury store profile March 2009 200
Table 52: SPAR company overview 2009 205
Table 53: SPAR sales via HQ and UK store numbers 2004-2009e 208
Table 54: SPAR sales via UK head office 2000-2009e 208
Table 55: SPAR UK retail trading record 2005-2009e 209
Table 56: SPAR store profile 1999-2009 211
Table 57: Tesco company overview 2009 217
Table 58: Tesco retail key operating statistics 2004-2009 219
Table 59: Tesco group sales & UK trading record 1998-2009 219
Table 60: Tesco neighbourhood retail trading record 2004-2009e 221
Table 61: Tesco store profile 1998-2009 221
Table 62: Tesco store profile February 2009 222
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Neighbourhood retailing 2009 30
Figure 2: Neighbourhood opportunities 2009 31
Figure 3: Achieving growth as dynamics of location change 34
Figure 4: Number of unaffiliated independents 2005-2013e 37
Figure 5: The threats in neighbourhood retailing 40
Figure 6: Neighbourhood market – sales 2004-2009e 44
Figure 7: Components of neighbourhood market – sales 2009 46
Figure 8: Components of neighbourhood market – stores 2009 46
Figure 9: Components of the market 2008 and 2009 47
Figure 10: N’hood density, space & stores y-o-y change % 1998-2009e 51
Figure 11: Neighbourhood sales growth % vs total store retail 1998-2009e 55
Figure 12: Sales growth by location 1998-2009e 55
Figure 13: Y-o-y change % in n’hood space vs total retail 1998-2009e 58
Figure 14: Space growth by location 1998 to 2009e 60
Figure 15: Y-o-Y change % in store numbers n’hood vs retail 1998-2009e 62
Figure 16: Y-o-Y change % in store numbers by location 1998-2009e 64
Figure 17: Convenience market sales growth 2004-2009e 65
Figure 18: Components of convenience market – sales 2009e 66
Figure 19: Components of convenience market – stores 2009e 66
Figure 20: Forecourt sales growth 2004 to 2009e 80
Figure 21: Leading oil companies n’hood sites with a shop 2007-2009 86
Figure 22: N’hood forecourt shops penetration of petrol stations 2005-2009 86
Figure 23: N’hood petrol station fuel brands & shares of shop sites 2009 87
Figure 24: Neighbourhood food specialists sales growth 2004-2009e 91
Figure 25: N’hood vs total food specialists sales growth 2004-2009e 95
Figure 26: N’hood vs total food specialists store number growth 2004-09e 96
Figure 27: Total food specialists sales growth 1998-2009e 97
Figure 28: Total food specialists store number growth 1998 to 2009e 101
Figure 29: Off-licence sales growth 2004-2009e 102
Figure 30: Neighbourhood Parmacists sales 2004-2009e 110
Figure 31: Alliance Boots pharmacy market share 2004-2009e 115
Figure 32: Alliance Boots share of NHS market 2004-2009e 116
Figure 33: Alliance Boots share of OTC market 2004-2009e 117
Figure 34: Lloydspharmacy retail pharmacy market share % 2004-2009e 119
Figure 35: Lloydspharmacy share of NHS and OTC markets % 2004-2009e 119
Figure 36: CTN sales growth 2004-2009e 123
Figure 37: Retail spending by location 2008 and 2013e 130
Figure 38: Neighbourhood sales 1998-2013e 131
Figure 39: Neighbourhood sales 2008 and 2013e 133
Figure 40: Neighbourhood space 1998-2013e 134
Figure 41: Neighbourhood store numbers 1998-2013e 134
Figure 42: Neighbourhood winners & losers in sales & space 2008/09 136
Figure 43: Market share changes of profilled n’hood stores 2008 on 2007 140
Figure 44: C-stores market shares 2007-2009e 142
Figure 45: The Co-operative food operating profit to January 2004-2009e 151
Figure 46: The Co-op n’hood sales and growth to January 2004-2009e 152
Figure 47: The Co-op Group neighbourhood market share 2004-2009e 155
Figure 48: The Co-op Group convenience-store market share 2004-2009e 156
Figure 49: Costcutter neighbourhood sales and growth to April 2004-2009e 163
Figure 50: Costcutter neighbourhood market share 2004-2009e 166
Figure 51: Costcutter c-store share 2004-2009e 167
Figure 52: Budgens neighbourhood sales and growth to Dec 2004-2009e 174
Figure 53: Londis n’hood sales and growth to December 2004-2009e 175
Figure 54: Musgrave NI n’hood sales and growth to December 2004-2009e 176
Figure 55: Musgrave GB n’hood sales and growth to December 2004-2009e 177
Figure 56: Musgrave neighbourhood market share 2004-2009e 179
Figure 57: Musgrave c-store market share 2004-2009e 181
Figure 58: Booker Group n’hood sales and growth to March 2004-2009e 188
Figure 59: Premier neighbourhood market share 2004-2009e 191
Figure 60: Premier c-store market share 2004-2009e 192
Figure 61: Sainsbury n’hood sales and growth to March 2004-2009 198
Figure 62: Sainsbury neighbourhood market share 2004-2009e 201
Figure 63: Sainsbury c-store market share 2004-2009e 202
Figure 64: SPAR n’hood sales and growth to December 2004-2009e 209
Figure 65: SPAR neighbourhood market share 2004-2009e 213
Figure 66: SPAR c-store market share 2004-2009e 214
Figure 67: Tesco neighbourhood sales and growth to February 2004-2009 220
Figure 68: Tesco neighbourhood market share 2004-2009e 223
Figure 69: Tesco c-store market share 2004-2009e 224
For More information please contact :
http://www.aarkstore.com/reports/UK-Neighbourhood-Retailing-2008-15800.html
About the Author
Minal H
SEO
vinod.minal@gmail.com
http://www.aarkstore.com
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